The Week in Women Voters (May 20, 2024)
I’m coming down from an absolute high after spending nearly a week in Washington, D.C. this past week. Election season is upon us, but I’m happy to report that spring is also in the air in the District. Apologies for the delay!
About those poll numbers:
It may feel like I come to you every week and tell you not to obsess over horse race polling. And, guess what, I’m going to tell you that again—this time about The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College poll from early this past week. Let’s start with a critical reminder that the election is not, in fact, being held today; head-to-head polling this far out from the election is not a realistic predictor. Additionally, it’s important to note that the way surveys define likely voters matters a lot when it comes to results.
Side note, this is precisely why Supermajority Ed Fund focused on infrequent and non-voting young women voters ages 18-35 in our 2023 research—these are populations so frequently overlooked that we had to establish how to define these populations in our own research. It’s also why we’re fielding research with that same population as we speak using mixed mode tactics, which seek to eliminate sample selection bias and reach young women where they are.
OK, with those bases covered, let’s take a look at the key takeaways. First, the elephant in the room: According to this polling, President Biden is trailing former President Trump in nearly all critical battleground states. The president is experiencing a relatively significant drop in support from previous rounds of polling. What’s more, support seems to be faltering in key populations—young people and communities of color.
But what’s the why here? If you’ve been following along with the Week in Women Voters for a bit, you’ll be unsurprised to find that these populations are focused on economic well being. And that focus has us all feeling like, despite how hard we work, the good life is out of reach. We’re worried about paying rent or ever affording a home, we’re concerned about grocery prices while greedy CEOs recommend cereal for dinner, and we’re thinking about the overwhelming cost of childcare and even potentially delaying having kids. It’s less about the economy as a whole and more about how we feel our own financial situation is and will be. And for many people, particularly communities of color, we’re left feeling like our situation is getting worse.
What’s more, for the youngest voters, they’re ready for a complete overhaul. For them, the system is broken and what’s needed is a disruption—and the question becomes what candidate will be most likely to upend our existing political system. Let’s also keep in mind that the youngest voters were children during Trump’s presidency. Voters, regardless of age, generally agree that Trump is more likely than Biden to disrupt the system. But for younger voters, their understanding of what a second Trump term will look like is very different than what it is for other age groups.
Reproductive Freedom:
News on in vitro fertilization has created a bit of a whiplash this cycle. First, Alabama’s Supreme Court outlawed the procedure. State Republicans quickly moved to protect IVF after immediate public outcry. They vowed to revisit the law for a permanent fix (but, spoiler alert, never did). Now Republicans at the federal level are moving to protect IVF—after blocking a measure from the other side of the aisle earlier this year.
What’s more, some states where abortion is already banned are now moving to threaten people who use medication abortion with fines and jail time. This in anticipation of Supreme Court decisions on the common abortion medication, mifepristone (along with a number of critical decisions).
What’s behind the political tennis match Republicans appear to be waging against themselves? It’s clear that reproductive freedom continues to be a mobilizing issue for young women, and all of these political maneuvers are an attempt to either confuse or distract voters from their track record on the issue. In short, they're scared.
Stick to Football:
In early May, a Kansas City Chiefs player (who was previously more-or-less unknown) decided to step out of his lane—a lane that is, apparently, playing only a few minutes of his sport with the exclusive task of kicking. Look, I know next-to-nothing about football, but I know enough about sports to know this man is no MVP. During a commencement speech, he shared an array of outdated and dangerous views on traditional roles for women as homemakers, wives, and mothers as well as spewing anti-LGBTIA+ hate. The response was, unsurprisingly, much like a swift tackle (something the player would know nothing about).
While I’d love to read this man for filth, here’s what I’ll say instead—these sorts of ridiculous and “diabolical lies” are a desperate attempt by power-hungry men when they feel threatened. Women, and young women in particular are showing their political power like never before, and those who have benefitted from a system of inequality will stop at nothing to keep it in place.
Written by Jess Herrera. Jess is Supermajority Ed Fund’s senior director of communications, creative, and digital. She leads the organization’s work to shift the narrative about women and build women’s power using strong, movement-wide messaging strategies.