The Week in Women Voters (April 22, 2024)
Lot’s to cover this week, and lots of action on the things young women prioritize. Let’s dive in.
Polling Madness:
It seems like every week there are new poll results that cause a bunch of hand wringing, a flurry of articles trying to read the tea leaves—and on the worst weeks, a collective freak out over what “the youths” will do this year. Are young voters bucking historical trends and putting their support behind the Republican presidential nominee in a big way? Will they show up at all?
This week is no different, but I’m here to tell you not to get caught up in it.
Horse race polling is always all over the place, particularly this early in the cycle. It’s also routinely unreliable as an indicator of how an election will be decided. It’s also worth noting that this is an especially weird election year, and the way pollsters decide who is likely to vote is critical. Voters of all ages lack enthusiasm for either candidate at the top of the ticket, and that is translating to polls getting vastly different results. This is particularly true for young people who are difficult to reach and often do not have voting histories to draw from—trust me, Supermajority Ed Fund did the first-of-its-kind research of infrequent and non-voting young women ages 18-35 this past year, and it took both patience and a mixture of tactics to identify and reach them.
Don’t get me wrong, polling does matter. It’s also promising to see a focus on young people as it’s clear that whoever wants to win in 2024 must mobilize young voters, particularly young women. But we’ve got to look beyond questions on the top of the ticket support. When we look at the data, there are two key elements too often getting overlooked: First, an incredibly high number of young voters are putting their support behind a third party candidate or plan not to vote at all. Second, there is a growing gender gap with young voters.
Let’s look at the first element. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from March, one fifth of voters under 35 indicated they wouldn’t vote for Biden or Trump, instead indicating they would select a third party candidate or, more prevalently, stay home all together. That’s the largest percentage of any age group by a long shot. That said, the latest Harvard youth poll results found that 53% of voters aged 18 to 29 will “definitely be voting” in the presidential election this year, just one percentage point lower than the 2020 election. It’s still early, and sometimes what voters say they will do and what they will actually do don’t necessarily align. Overcoming the enthusiasm gap will make or break candidates this year, so these are results worth watching.
That said, which young voters are turning out matters as well. Recent poll results are also identifying a growing gender gap among young voters. According to that same Harvard poll, Biden is outperforming Trump with both likely and registered voters under 30 by a sizable margin. But that margin is due to a significant difference between young men and women. Biden bests Trump by 33 points with likely women voters while only overcoming the former president by six points with young men. There are similar disparities among young people of color and along education levels. Even this early, these differences are worth watching, as are the priorities and vibes of young women as well as the places they spend their time (yes, even dating apps) this election year.
Issue Action:
Speaking of… let’s talk about what we know about young women’s priorities and recent movement on these issues.
First, on abortion to carry over our topic from last week. After former President Trump quickly pivoted his stance on reproductive freedom in a power-seeking move, states continued to take action on abortion access—and not in good ways. Arizona failed to repeal the abortion ban again this week... blocked by, you guessed it, Republican legislators. Only one Republican joined Democrats to fast-track legislation. Moving through a traditional legislative process will take weeks to approve, if it can get enough support. The ban may go into effect before then. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court will soon hear arguments over whether an Idaho abortion ban violates federal protections for emergency care—a pending decision on this case could have repercussions on reproductive freedom as well as access to medical care for people across the country.
And on the economy, which is the top priority for young women across the board, there were some really crucial moves this week. First, some good news: In a new FT-Michigan Ross poll, voters expressed a slight improvement in their opinion of President Biden’s handling of the economy. The shift was particularly prevalent with women, young voters, and voters of color. That said, young women continue to be squeezed by rising prices, student loans, and the housing crisis.
There are some signs of relief, particularly in the Biden administration’s continued efforts to cancel student loans, with a brand new proposal coming out in mid April that could fully forgive loans for a number of borrowers. If successfully implemented, the total number of borrowers who will get relief under the Biden administration would total more than 30 million. That said, voters are still incredibly concerned about rising prices—an issue they largely attribute to corporate greed. Those worries are holding steady. What’s more, April’s tax deadline came and went without federal action on the child tax credit, leaving many young families stretched as child care costs continue to rise.
Want more like this from us in your inbox? Join the Supermajority Ed Fund community today.
Written by Jess Herrera. Jess is Supermajority Ed Fund’s senior director of communications, creative, and digital. She leads the organization’s work to shift the narrative about women and build women’s power using strong, movement-wide messaging strategies.